The Oscar Race Just Got a Lot More Interesting: Sinners Shatters Records, But Can It Dethrone One Battle After Another?
The 98th Academy Awards nominations are in, and the race for Best Picture has taken an unexpected turn. Sinners has shattered records with an astonishing 16 nominations, surpassing the previous record held by All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. But here's the twist: despite this historic feat, the film still faces an uphill battle against One Battle After Another, which has already dominated the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards. And this is the part most people miss: while Sinners secured nominations in every plausible category, its top contenders each faced at least one glaring snub. For instance, One Battle After Another missed out on a Best Actress nomination for Chase Infiniti, and Hamnet was overlooked for Best Supporting Actor, Cinematography, and Film Editing for Paul Mescal.
Is Sinners’ Record-Breaking Nomination Count Enough to Shift the Momentum?
Over the past 16 years, the film with the most nominations has only won Best Picture six times. However, Sinners’ 16 nominations—three more than One Battle After Another and seven more than the third-place contenders—feel like a bold statement. An increasing number of industry insiders believe Sinners is better positioned to win, but will it be enough to dethrone the current favorite?
The Studio Behind the Battle: Warner Bros.’ Unique Position
Adding another layer of intrigue, both Sinners and One Battle After Another are distributed by Warner Bros., which led all studios with 30 nominations. Ironically, the studio is currently in the process of being sold. This marks a rare occurrence in Oscar history: two clear frontrunners from the same studio, reminiscent of Paramount’s Chinatown vs. The Godfather Part II 51 years ago.
The Promotion Battle: Equal Treatment or All-Out War?
Warner Bros. is expected to give both films equal treatment in their campaigns, but personal reps are likely to go all out for their respective clients. This dynamic raises a thought-provoking question: in a race this close, does studio neutrality level the playing field, or does it intensify the competition?
Scott’s Predictions: A Deep Dive into the Oscar Races
Below is Scott’s first post-noms read of all 24 Oscar races, based on screenings, campaign analysis, voter insights, and historical data. Remember, these projections reflect what the Academy will do, not Scott’s personal preferences.
Best Picture
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
3. Hamnet (Focus)
4. Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Marty Supreme (A24)
6. Train Dreams (Netflix)
7. Frankenstein (Netflix)
8. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
9. The Secret Agent (Neon)
10. Bugonia (Focus)
Best Director
1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
2. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
3. Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
4. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
5. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Best Actor
1. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
2. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
4. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
5. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Best Actress
1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
2. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
3. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
4. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
5. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
2. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
3. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
4. Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)
5. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
2. Amy Madigan (Weapons)
3. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
4. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein
Best Original Screenplay
1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just an Accident
5. Blue Moon
Best International Feature
1. Norway (Sentimental Value)
2. Brazil (The Secret Agent)
3. France (It Was Just an Accident)
4. Tunisia (The Voice of Hind Rajab)
5. Spain (Sirāt)
Best Documentary Feature
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. The Alabama Solution
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. Come See Me in the Good Light
5. Cutting Through Rocks
Best Animated Feature
1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio
Controversial Question: Can a Record-Breaking Nomination Count Guarantee a Win?
While Sinners’ 16 nominations are impressive, history shows that the most-nominated film doesn’t always win Best Picture. Does this mean One Battle After Another still has the edge, or will Sinners’ momentum carry it to victory? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a debate!
